Key Industry Trends
· Corporate and infrastructure companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) face a weaker operating environment at present on the back of lower oil prices, which have more than halved since June 2014. Government expenditures, on which these companies largely depend, are slowing as a result.
· Reflecting this weak economic climate, debt issuance by corporate and infrastructure companies has fallen by 58% in the past 12 months to about $7 billion. This also reflects our view that the credit cycle has reached a potential tipping point, with higher pricing anticipated going forward.
· We nevertheless see various factors that could tempt existing and new issuers to tap the capital markets over the coming year. These include the gradually declining availability of liquidity at the local banks, the opening up of markets to foreign investment (such as the Tadawul in Saudi Arabia, along with the Iranian market if the nuclear deal with the P5+1 progresses as expected), and the refinancing by government-related entities (GREs) in 2016.
· Ratings on some companies with exposure to commodity markets have come under pressure due to the lower oil prices. Similarly, ratings on GREs connected to some sovereigns have been constrained. We have lowered the ratings on Bahrain and Oman in 2015. The sovereign ratings on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia remain on negative outlook.
· The Dubai real estate market is also going through a correction, with residential prices expected to decline by about 10%-20% during 2015. However, we think our ratings on UAE property developers and property investment companies are cushioned enough to withstand the current correction.
· Despite our expectation of a tougher pricing environment ahead, we expect GCC issuers will have sufficient headroom within their financial profiles to withstand a stress scenario of a rate hike by the Fed, which is usually reflected in GCC central bank rates, of 150-200 basis points (bps) with a limited impact on their financial profiles in the short term.
· Energy subsidy cuts by Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE governments could increase financial pressures on downstream corporates in the region. Governments are currently protecting large public sector investment budgets to support economic growth. Yet, the longer the oil price remains at current lows, the more likely these could be postponed or cut.